Certainty vs. Confidence

”Are you sure about this?”
”Not 100%, no.”
”But how can you be so confident?”
”I am confident that, whatever happens, we will learn from it and get better.”

For a while, I got obsessed with being 100% certain about things. I spent countless hours studying statistics and probability just to see if I would be able to predict outcomes better. I didn’t get better at predicting anything.

But I learned a lot about the role of randomness.

No matter how much research you’ve done, how many prototypes you tested, how many processes you followed, how many strategies you set, how sophisticated your choice is; randomness will have the last word.

Don’t look at your decisions and goals as things set in stone that are bound to happen; they are nothing more than bets.

Informed bets sometimes, but chances nonetheless.

Every step of any process you follow is mostly useful to help increase the confidence in the bets you are placing, they help reduce some of the risks, but some risk is always there.

Think of it like researching a horse’s health, race history, breed, training routine, etcetera, before a horse race. That information will prevent you from betting on a sick horse — it makes your odds of winning better, but It does not guarantee victory.

We have the illusion of certainty because we only read stories of winners, success stories, case studies. It gives us the impression that if only we follow every step, our success is guaranteed.

Embrace the uncertainty of life and try to build your confidence based on resilience, and on working and learning from bets and it’s outcomes.

Acknowledge that you, your business, your product or service, are a small part of a large, complex and mostly random system, but don’t sweat over it.

Focus on what you can control. The only attribute randomness has no control over is how you react to things that happen to you — your behavior.

Place your bets. And good luck.

This was originally posted on my substack newsletter, if you feel like it, go follow me there: https://coelholucas.substack.com

👋🏽